[ { "id": 400, "name": "GPU Compute Cost", "category": "AI / Machine Learning", "year_range": "2003-2025", "n_datapoints": 13, "learning_rate_pct": 88.5, "r_squared": 0.9911, "b_exponent": 3.1158, "b_stderr": 0.0889, "lr_ci_low": 86.8, "lr_ci_high": 89.9, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Cost (2024 $/GFLOPS)", "annual_pct_change": -25.5, "halving_time_yrs": 2.4, "latest_price_2025": "$12.6-17.8/FP16 TFLOPS (B200 GPU)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~4x10^21 FLOP/s cumulative NVIDIA compute stock", "primary_source": "Epoch AI / NVIDIA", "source_url": "https://epoch.ai/data-insights/b200-cost-breakdown", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "FP16 TFLOPS/$ improved ~4x from A100 to B200 (2020-2024). B200 mfg cost ~$6,400. H100 rental: $2-3/hr (down from $8+ in early 2023). Cumulative GPU stock doubles every 10 months.", "dataQuality": "estimated", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 24, "name": "Hard Disk Drive", "category": "Hardware", "year_range": "1988-2024", "n_datapoints": 37, "learning_rate_pct": 56.4, "r_squared": 0.9649, "b_exponent": 1.1975, "b_stderr": 0.0392, "lr_ci_low": 53.9, "lr_ci_high": 58.7, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (2005 USD/Megabyte)", "annual_pct_change": -35.31, "halving_time_yrs": 1.6, "latest_price_2025": "$10-15/TB (consumer HDD)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "123.9M units shipped (2024); 1,337 EB capacity; ~278M units projected 2025", "primary_source": "Backblaze / DiskPrices.com", "source_url": "https://www.backblaze.com/blog/hard-drive-cost-per-gigabyte/", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "$10/TB milestone achieved on 24TB drives. However, 46% average price surge since Sep 2025 due to AI datacenter demand. HAMR drives: 8M units in 2025.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 108, "name": "Aniline", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1961-1972", "n_datapoints": 12, "learning_rate_pct": 49.5, "r_squared": 0.8994, "b_exponent": 0.985, "b_stderr": 0.1042, "lr_ci_low": 40.7, "lr_ci_high": 57.0, "p_value": 3e-06, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -5.62, "halving_time_yrs": 12.0, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 182, "name": "Photovoltaics Electricity", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1980-2025", "n_datapoints": 42, "learning_rate_pct": 49.1, "r_squared": 0.6634, "b_exponent": 0.9733, "b_stderr": 0.1853, "lr_ci_low": 32.9, "lr_ci_high": 61.3, "p_value": 0.000122, "cost_label": "Cost (2005 US cents/KWH)", "annual_pct_change": -8.76, "halving_time_yrs": 7.6, "latest_price_2025": "$0.043/kWh (global LCOE)", "latest_year": 2024, "cumulative_production_2025": "2,250 GW cumulative installed", "primary_source": "IRENA RPGC 2024", "source_url": "https://www.pv-tech.org/irena-global-solar-pv-lcoe-increases-by-0-6-in-2024-to-us0-043-kwh/", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "LCOE increased 0.6% YoY in 2024 despite continued module price declines. System costs vary by region.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 132, "name": "PhthalicAnhydride", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1955-1972", "n_datapoints": 18, "learning_rate_pct": 45.2, "r_squared": 0.8278, "b_exponent": 0.8676, "b_stderr": 0.0989, "lr_ci_low": 36.6, "lr_ci_high": 52.6, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -6.86, "halving_time_yrs": 9.7, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 106, "name": "Ammonia", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1960-1972", "n_datapoints": 13, "learning_rate_pct": 43.9, "r_squared": 0.8747, "b_exponent": 0.8348, "b_stderr": 0.0953, "lr_ci_low": 35.2, "lr_ci_high": 51.5, "p_value": 3e-06, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -8.62, "halving_time_yrs": 7.7, "latest_price_2025": "$289-426/MT (regional range)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~150-198 Mt annual production (2024-2025)", "primary_source": "ChemAnalyst", "source_url": "https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/ammonia-37", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Historical dataset ends 1972. Modern ammonia at ~$290-426/MT. Price tightly coupled to natural gas feedstock.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 131, "name": "Phenol", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1959-1972", "n_datapoints": 14, "learning_rate_pct": 43.8, "r_squared": 0.964, "b_exponent": 0.8304, "b_stderr": 0.0463, "lr_ci_low": 39.7, "lr_ci_high": 47.6, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -7.83, "halving_time_yrs": 8.5, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 23, "name": "Transistor", "category": "Hardware", "year_range": "1968-2025", "n_datapoints": 58, "learning_rate_pct": 42.8, "r_squared": 0.9973, "b_exponent": 0.8053, "b_stderr": 0.0071, "lr_ci_low": 42.2, "lr_ci_high": 43.3, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (2005 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -34.46, "halving_time_yrs": 1.6, "latest_price_2025": "~$0.02 per million transistors at 3nm", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "13,328 MSI silicon wafers projected (2025); 42M+ 300mm wafers/quarter", "primary_source": "SEMI / EE Times", "source_url": "https://www.eetimes.com/tsmc-price-hikes-end-the-era-of-cheap-transistors/", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "HISTORIC TREND BREAK: Cost per transistor RISING at leading edge. Cost scaling stalled at 28nm (~2012). TSMC 3nm wafers ~$20K; 2nm >$30K. Moore's Law as economic law may be over at leading edge.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 100, "name": "Benzene", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1952-1968", "n_datapoints": 17, "learning_rate_pct": 40.8, "r_squared": 0.9129, "b_exponent": 0.7569, "b_stderr": 0.0625, "lr_ci_low": 35.1, "lr_ci_high": 46.1, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -5.83, "halving_time_yrs": 11.5, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 142, "name": "Trichloroethane", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1966-1972", "n_datapoints": 7, "learning_rate_pct": 39.4, "r_squared": 0.898, "b_exponent": 0.7233, "b_stderr": 0.109, "lr_ci_low": 26.4, "lr_ci_high": 50.1, "p_value": 0.001171, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -6.56, "halving_time_yrs": 10.2, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "historical", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 25, "name": "DRAM", "category": "Hardware", "year_range": "1971-2025", "n_datapoints": 55, "learning_rate_pct": 37.9, "r_squared": 0.9872, "b_exponent": 0.6881, "b_stderr": 0.0109, "lr_ci_low": 37.0, "lr_ci_high": 38.9, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (2005 USD/thousand bits)", "annual_pct_change": -30.05, "halving_time_yrs": 1.9, "latest_price_2025": "$0.50-0.81/GB (DDR5 spot)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "160B+ gigabits shipped (2024); $92.4B DRAM market revenue (2024)", "primary_source": "TrendForce", "source_url": "https://www.trendforce.com/price/dram/dram_spot", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Price REVERSAL: after historic lows in 2023, DRAM prices surged 60%+ in 2025 driven by AI/HBM demand. DDR5 contract prices up 18-23% QoQ in Q4 2025.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 122, "name": "EthyleneGlycol", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1960-1972", "n_datapoints": 13, "learning_rate_pct": 37.9, "r_squared": 0.9556, "b_exponent": 0.6863, "b_stderr": 0.0446, "lr_ci_low": 33.5, "lr_ci_high": 41.9, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -6.4, "halving_time_yrs": 10.5, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 128, "name": "Methanol", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1957-1972", "n_datapoints": 16, "learning_rate_pct": 37.6, "r_squared": 0.7482, "b_exponent": 0.6793, "b_stderr": 0.1053, "lr_ci_low": 27.0, "lr_ci_high": 46.6, "p_value": 1.5e-05, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -5.65, "halving_time_yrs": 11.9, "latest_price_2025": "~$300-400/MT (methanol, 2025)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~100+ Mt annual global methanol", "primary_source": "ChemAnalyst", "source_url": "https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/ammonia-37", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Methanol. Historical dataset ends 1972. Price tied to natural gas feedstock.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 141, "name": "TitaniumDioxide", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1964-1972", "n_datapoints": 9, "learning_rate_pct": 36.0, "r_squared": 0.8715, "b_exponent": 0.6449, "b_stderr": 0.0936, "lr_ci_low": 25.4, "lr_ci_high": 45.1, "p_value": 0.000234, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -3.86, "halving_time_yrs": 17.6, "latest_price_2025": "$2,260/MT (US); $1,900/MT (NE Asia)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~7.4-7.7 Mt annual (2024)", "primary_source": "ChemAnalyst", "source_url": "https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/titanium-dioxide-52", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Historical dataset ends 1972. Modern TiO2 at ~$1,900-2,260/MT.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 145, "name": "VinylChloride", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1962-1972", "n_datapoints": 11, "learning_rate_pct": 35.9, "r_squared": 0.9825, "b_exponent": 0.6426, "b_stderr": 0.0286, "lr_ci_low": 33.0, "lr_ci_high": 38.8, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -8.57, "halving_time_yrs": 7.7, "latest_price_2025": "$643/MT (US PVC); $1,092/MT (Germany)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~40-57 Mt annual PVC (2024)", "primary_source": "ChemAnalyst / IndexBox", "source_url": "https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/poly-vinyl-chloride-5", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "VinylChloride (monomer) / PVC. Historical dataset ends 1972.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 123, "name": "Formaldehyde", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1962-1972", "n_datapoints": 11, "learning_rate_pct": 35.0, "r_squared": 0.9203, "b_exponent": 0.6215, "b_stderr": 0.0609, "lr_ci_low": 28.5, "lr_ci_high": 40.9, "p_value": 3e-06, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -5.77, "halving_time_yrs": 11.7, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 138, "name": "SodiumHydrosulfite", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1964-1972", "n_datapoints": 9, "learning_rate_pct": 35.0, "r_squared": 0.5822, "b_exponent": 0.6224, "b_stderr": 0.1993, "lr_ci_low": 9.9, "lr_ci_high": 53.1, "p_value": 0.016767, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -2.17, "halving_time_yrs": 31.6, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 125, "name": "IsopropylAlcohol", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1964-1972", "n_datapoints": 9, "learning_rate_pct": 34.9, "r_squared": 0.9525, "b_exponent": 0.6199, "b_stderr": 0.0523, "lr_ci_low": 29.1, "lr_ci_high": 40.3, "p_value": 7e-06, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -3.8, "halving_time_yrs": 17.9, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 144, "name": "VinylAcetate", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1960-1972", "n_datapoints": 13, "learning_rate_pct": 33.8, "r_squared": 0.9267, "b_exponent": 0.5955, "b_stderr": 0.0505, "lr_ci_low": 28.5, "lr_ci_high": 38.7, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -7.3, "halving_time_yrs": 9.1, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 140, "name": "Styrene", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1958-1972", "n_datapoints": 15, "learning_rate_pct": 33.0, "r_squared": 0.979, "b_exponent": 0.5767, "b_stderr": 0.0234, "lr_ci_low": 30.6, "lr_ci_high": 35.3, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -6.71, "halving_time_yrs": 10.0, "latest_price_2025": "~$1,200-1,400/MT (styrene monomer, 2025 estimate)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~35 Mt annual styrene (2024 est.)", "primary_source": "ChemAnalyst", "source_url": "https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/polystyrene-ps-11", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Styrene monomer. Historical dataset ends 1972. Feedstock for polystyrene.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 119, "name": "AcrylicFiber", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1960-1972", "n_datapoints": 13, "learning_rate_pct": 32.1, "r_squared": 0.9696, "b_exponent": 0.5582, "b_stderr": 0.0298, "lr_ci_low": 28.9, "lr_ci_high": 35.1, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -9.74, "halving_time_yrs": 6.8, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 65, "name": "Automotive (US)", "category": "Automotive", "year_range": "1970-2024", "n_datapoints": 43, "learning_rate_pct": 31.7, "r_squared": 0.9938, "b_exponent": 0.5504, "b_stderr": 0.0095, "lr_ci_low": 30.8, "lr_ci_high": 32.6, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Fuel consumption (Gallons/Mile)", "annual_pct_change": -12.64, "halving_time_yrs": 5.1, "latest_price_2025": "~24.4 MPG US fleet average (2024 MY); ~0.041 gal/mile", "latest_year": 2024, "cumulative_production_2025": "~290M registered vehicles in US; ~1.4B globally", "primary_source": "EPA / NHTSA", "source_url": "https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Automotive fuel efficiency (US). Steady improvement driven by CAFE standards and EV adoption.", "dataQuality": "unit_issue", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 96, "name": "Free Standing Gas Range", "category": "Consumer Goods", "year_range": "1946-1967", "n_datapoints": 22, "learning_rate_pct": 30.3, "r_squared": 0.8969, "b_exponent": 0.5216, "b_stderr": 0.0406, "lr_ci_low": 26.1, "lr_ci_high": 34.3, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -1.77, "halving_time_yrs": 38.8, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 118, "name": "Ethanolamine", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1955-1972", "n_datapoints": 18, "learning_rate_pct": 29.8, "r_squared": 0.8935, "b_exponent": 0.5103, "b_stderr": 0.044, "lr_ci_low": 25.1, "lr_ci_high": 34.2, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -5.97, "halving_time_yrs": 11.3, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 34, "name": "Shotgun Sanger DNA Sequencing", "category": "Biotechnology", "year_range": "2001-2025", "n_datapoints": 42, "learning_rate_pct": 29.2, "r_squared": 0.8725, "b_exponent": 0.4987, "b_stderr": 0.0397, "lr_ci_low": 25.1, "lr_ci_high": 33.1, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Cost (USD/Kilobase)", "annual_pct_change": -53.14, "halving_time_yrs": 0.9, "latest_price_2025": "$200/genome (Illumina NovaSeq X); $100/genome (Ultima Genomics)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~9.4M whole genomes sequenced annually; ~2M+ cumulative", "primary_source": "NHGRI / Illumina / Ultima Genomics", "source_url": "https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Costs-Data", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Sub-$200 genome routine at scale. Sub-$100 achievable on Ultima. ~1-billion-fold reduction since 2001 ($95M to $100).", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 112, "name": "Caprolactam", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1962-1972", "n_datapoints": 11, "learning_rate_pct": 29.0, "r_squared": 0.9648, "b_exponent": 0.4949, "b_stderr": 0.0315, "lr_ci_low": 25.4, "lr_ci_high": 32.5, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -10.93, "halving_time_yrs": 6.0, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 121, "name": "Ethylene 2", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1960-1972", "n_datapoints": 13, "learning_rate_pct": 28.3, "r_squared": 0.9443, "b_exponent": 0.4794, "b_stderr": 0.0351, "lr_ci_low": 24.3, "lr_ci_high": 32.0, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -6.29, "halving_time_yrs": 10.7, "latest_price_2025": "~$800-1,000/MT (ethylene)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~200+ Mt annual global ethylene", "primary_source": "ChemAnalyst", "source_url": "https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/polystyrene-ps-11", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Ethylene 2. Same commodity, different dataset.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 143, "name": "Urea", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1961-1972", "n_datapoints": 12, "learning_rate_pct": 28.2, "r_squared": 0.8846, "b_exponent": 0.4789, "b_stderr": 0.0547, "lr_ci_low": 21.9, "lr_ci_high": 34.1, "p_value": 5e-06, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -7.01, "halving_time_yrs": 9.5, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 133, "name": "PolyesterFiber", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1960-1972", "n_datapoints": 13, "learning_rate_pct": 28.1, "r_squared": 0.9717, "b_exponent": 0.4767, "b_stderr": 0.0245, "lr_ci_low": 25.4, "lr_ci_high": 30.8, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -12.62, "halving_time_yrs": 5.1, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 26, "name": "Milk (US)", "category": "Agriculture", "year_range": "1930-2024", "n_datapoints": 95, "learning_rate_pct": 28.0, "r_squared": 0.7822, "b_exponent": 0.4733, "b_stderr": 0.0287, "lr_ci_low": 25.1, "lr_ci_high": 30.8, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Cost (Heads/Mil. lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -2.12, "halving_time_yrs": 32.4, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 135, "name": "PolyethyleneLD", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1958-1972", "n_datapoints": 15, "learning_rate_pct": 27.8, "r_squared": 0.9765, "b_exponent": 0.4706, "b_stderr": 0.0203, "lr_ci_low": 25.6, "lr_ci_high": 30.0, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -8.48, "halving_time_yrs": 7.8, "latest_price_2025": "$1,280-1,320/MT (LDPE US/China)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~22.6-25 Mt annual (2024); ~8.3 Bt cumulative plastics total", "primary_source": "Intratec / ChemAnalyst", "source_url": "https://www.intratec.us/solutions/primary-commodity-prices/commodity/ldpe-prices", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "PolyethyleneLD. Historical dataset ends ~1972. Modern LDPE at ~$1,280-1,320/MT.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 255, "name": "Fotovoltaica", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1957-2007", "n_datapoints": 51, "learning_rate_pct": 27.7, "r_squared": 0.9525, "b_exponent": 0.4673, "b_stderr": 0.0151, "lr_ci_low": 26.1, "lr_ci_high": 29.2, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Costo (2005 USD/kWh)", "annual_pct_change": -13.61, "halving_time_yrs": 4.7, "latest_price_2025": "$0.043/kWh (global LCOE)", "latest_year": 2024, "cumulative_production_2025": "2,250 GW cumulative installed", "primary_source": "IRENA RPGC 2024", "source_url": "https://www.irena.org/Publications/2025/Jun/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2024", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Fotovoltaica dataset - same underlying PV data.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 136, "name": "Sodium", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1957-1972", "n_datapoints": 16, "learning_rate_pct": 27.6, "r_squared": 0.9088, "b_exponent": 0.4659, "b_stderr": 0.0395, "lr_ci_low": 23.2, "lr_ci_high": 31.7, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -1.52, "halving_time_yrs": 45.2, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 139, "name": "Sorbitol", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1965-1972", "n_datapoints": 8, "learning_rate_pct": 27.6, "r_squared": 0.7967, "b_exponent": 0.4649, "b_stderr": 0.0959, "lr_ci_low": 14.8, "lr_ci_high": 38.4, "p_value": 0.002857, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -2.83, "halving_time_yrs": 24.2, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 134, "name": "PolyethyleneHD", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1958-1972", "n_datapoints": 15, "learning_rate_pct": 27.3, "r_squared": 0.9808, "b_exponent": 0.4594, "b_stderr": 0.0178, "lr_ci_low": 25.3, "lr_ci_high": 29.2, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -9.31, "halving_time_yrs": 7.1, "latest_price_2025": "$1,170/MT (US HDPE); $1,291/MT (UK)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~52 Mt annual HDPE (2024); part of 413.8 Mt total plastics", "primary_source": "ChemAnalyst / IMARC", "source_url": "https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/polystyrene-ps-11", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "PolyethyleneHD. Historical dataset ends ~1972. Total cumulative plastics ~8.3 Bt.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 115, "name": "CarbonDisulfide", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1963-1972", "n_datapoints": 10, "learning_rate_pct": 27.1, "r_squared": 0.5665, "b_exponent": 0.4566, "b_stderr": 0.1412, "lr_ci_low": 8.7, "lr_ci_high": 41.9, "p_value": 0.012, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -2.12, "halving_time_yrs": 32.3, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 105, "name": "Aluminum", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1956-2025", "n_datapoints": 70, "learning_rate_pct": 26.8, "r_squared": 0.2446, "b_exponent": 0.45, "b_stderr": 0.0959, "lr_ci_low": 16.4, "lr_ci_high": 35.9, "p_value": 1.4e-05, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -2.03, "halving_time_yrs": 33.8, "latest_price_2025": "$2,400-3,270/MT (LME range in 2025)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "72.3 Mt (2024); 74.5 Mt forecast (2025); ~1.5 Bt cumulative est.", "primary_source": "TradingEconomics / AlCircle", "source_url": "https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/aluminum", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Historical dataset from BCG chemicals study. Modern aluminum prices driven by China's 45 Mt production cap.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 127, "name": "MaleicAnhydride", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1959-1972", "n_datapoints": 14, "learning_rate_pct": 25.3, "r_squared": 0.6349, "b_exponent": 0.4216, "b_stderr": 0.0923, "lr_ci_low": 14.2, "lr_ci_high": 35.1, "p_value": 0.000645, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -5.28, "halving_time_yrs": 12.8, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 130, "name": "Pentaerythritol", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1952-1972", "n_datapoints": 21, "learning_rate_pct": 25.2, "r_squared": 0.8902, "b_exponent": 0.4182, "b_stderr": 0.0337, "lr_ci_low": 21.4, "lr_ci_high": 28.7, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -4.11, "halving_time_yrs": 16.5, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 113, "name": "Acrylonitrile", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1959-1972", "n_datapoints": 14, "learning_rate_pct": 24.9, "r_squared": 0.9122, "b_exponent": 0.4141, "b_stderr": 0.0371, "lr_ci_low": 20.6, "lr_ci_high": 29.0, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -7.31, "halving_time_yrs": 9.1, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 148, "name": "Polyvinylchloride", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1946-1968", "n_datapoints": 23, "learning_rate_pct": 24.4, "r_squared": 0.881, "b_exponent": 0.404, "b_stderr": 0.0332, "lr_ci_low": 20.7, "lr_ci_high": 28.0, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price per Pound (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -7.05, "halving_time_yrs": 9.5, "latest_price_2025": "$643/MT (US PVC); $1,092/MT (Germany)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~40-57 Mt annual PVC (2024)", "primary_source": "ChemAnalyst", "source_url": "https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/poly-vinyl-chloride-5", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Polyvinylchloride. Same commodity as VinylChloride id 145.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 101, "name": "Paraxylene", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1957-1968", "n_datapoints": 12, "learning_rate_pct": 24.3, "r_squared": 0.9511, "b_exponent": 0.4013, "b_stderr": 0.0303, "lr_ci_low": 20.6, "lr_ci_high": 27.8, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -9.45, "halving_time_yrs": 7.0, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 111, "name": "BisphenolA", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1959-1972", "n_datapoints": 14, "learning_rate_pct": 24.3, "r_squared": 0.958, "b_exponent": 0.4011, "b_stderr": 0.0242, "lr_ci_low": 21.4, "lr_ci_high": 27.0, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -5.96, "halving_time_yrs": 11.3, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 158, "name": "Photovoltaics 4", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1975-2025", "n_datapoints": 51, "learning_rate_pct": 23.8, "r_squared": 0.9529, "b_exponent": 0.3927, "b_stderr": 0.0125, "lr_ci_low": 22.5, "lr_ci_high": 25.1, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Cost (2004 USD/Watt)", "annual_pct_change": -10.7, "halving_time_yrs": 6.1, "latest_price_2025": "$0.096/W (module); $691/kW (system, utility-scale)", "latest_year": 2024, "cumulative_production_2025": "2,250 GW cumulative installed", "primary_source": "IRENA RPGC 2024", "source_url": "https://www.irena.org/Publications/2025/Jun/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2024", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "IRENA reports global utility-scale system cost $691/kW and LCOE $0.043/kWh in 2024.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 137, "name": "SodiumChlorate", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1958-1972", "n_datapoints": 15, "learning_rate_pct": 23.7, "r_squared": 0.8945, "b_exponent": 0.3897, "b_stderr": 0.0371, "lr_ci_low": 19.3, "lr_ci_high": 27.8, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -3.92, "halving_time_yrs": 17.3, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 116, "name": "Cyclohexane", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1956-1972", "n_datapoints": 17, "learning_rate_pct": 22.8, "r_squared": 0.9613, "b_exponent": 0.3731, "b_stderr": 0.0193, "lr_ci_low": 20.6, "lr_ci_high": 25.0, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -5.1, "halving_time_yrs": 13.2, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 102, "name": "Low Density Polyethylene", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1952-1968", "n_datapoints": 17, "learning_rate_pct": 21.5, "r_squared": 0.9418, "b_exponent": 0.3486, "b_stderr": 0.0232, "lr_ci_low": 18.7, "lr_ci_high": 24.1, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price per Pound (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -9.7, "halving_time_yrs": 6.8, "latest_price_2025": "$1,280-1,320/MT (LDPE)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~22.6-25 Mt annual LDPE (2024)", "primary_source": "ChemAnalyst / Intratec", "source_url": "https://www.chemanalyst.com/industry-report/low-density-polyethylene-market-2955", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Low Density Polyethylene. Same commodity as PolyethyleneLD (id 135).", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 176, "name": "Geothermal Electricity", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1980-2025", "n_datapoints": 46, "learning_rate_pct": 21.2, "r_squared": 0.9003, "b_exponent": 0.3434, "b_stderr": 0.0172, "lr_ci_low": 19.3, "lr_ci_high": 23.1, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Cost (2005 US cents/KWH)", "annual_pct_change": -2.26, "halving_time_yrs": 30.3, "latest_price_2025": "$0.060/kWh (global LCOE)", "latest_year": 2024, "cumulative_production_2025": "~16 GW global geothermal capacity", "primary_source": "IRENA RPGC 2024", "source_url": "https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/irena-report-highlights-16-decrease-in-geothermal-power-lcoe-in-2024/", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "LCOE dropped 16% in 2024 (from $0.072 to $0.060/kWh). Capacity factor 88%. Heavily influenced by Tauhara II project.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 256, "name": "Photovoltaics 2", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1976-2025", "n_datapoints": 50, "learning_rate_pct": 21.0, "r_squared": 0.9336, "b_exponent": 0.3404, "b_stderr": 0.0132, "lr_ci_low": 19.5, "lr_ci_high": 22.5, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Cost (2005 USD/kWh)", "annual_pct_change": -10.17, "halving_time_yrs": 6.5, "latest_price_2025": "$0.043/kWh (LCOE); $0.096/W (module)", "latest_year": 2024, "cumulative_production_2025": "2,250 GW cumulative installed", "primary_source": "IRENA / BloombergNEF", "source_url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "PV electricity production & cost dataset. 2024 data confirms continued learning curve trajectory.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 154, "name": "Electric Power", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1939-1968", "n_datapoints": 30, "learning_rate_pct": 20.8, "r_squared": 0.9482, "b_exponent": 0.3362, "b_stderr": 0.0151, "lr_ci_low": 19.1, "lr_ci_high": 22.5, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price per KWH (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -3.74, "halving_time_yrs": 18.2, "latest_price_2025": "US average retail: ~$0.13/kWh (2024)", "latest_year": 2024, "cumulative_production_2025": "~29,000 TWh global electricity generation (2024)", "primary_source": "EIA", "source_url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Electric Power aggregate. Global generation continues to grow ~2-3% annually.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 14, "name": "Photovoltaics", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1975-2025", "n_datapoints": 51, "learning_rate_pct": 20.5, "r_squared": 0.9265, "b_exponent": 0.3309, "b_stderr": 0.0135, "lr_ci_low": 19.0, "lr_ci_high": 22.0, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (USD/Wp)", "annual_pct_change": -8.72, "halving_time_yrs": 7.6, "latest_price_2025": "$0.096/W (module spot price)", "latest_year": 2024, "cumulative_production_2025": "2,250 GW cumulative installed capacity", "primary_source": "BloombergNEF", "source_url": "https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/3q-2024-global-pv-market-outlook/", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Module spot price Q3 2024; annual additions 554-602 GW in 2024. Learning rate ~20% per doubling (Swanson's Law).", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 30, "name": "Capillary DNA Sequencing", "category": "Biotechnology", "year_range": "2000-2025", "n_datapoints": 26, "learning_rate_pct": 20.0, "r_squared": 0.9551, "b_exponent": 0.3213, "b_stderr": 0.0285, "lr_ci_low": 16.0, "lr_ci_high": 23.7, "p_value": 2.9e-05, "cost_label": "Cost (USD/Kilobase)", "annual_pct_change": -49.69, "halving_time_yrs": 1.0, "latest_price_2025": "$200/genome (Illumina NovaSeq X Plus)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~9.4M whole genomes sequenced annually", "primary_source": "NHGRI / Illumina", "source_url": "https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Costs-Data", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Capillary sequencing superseded by NGS. NHGRI stopped cost tracking after 2022. Current costs represent NGS continuation.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 155, "name": "Refined Cane Sugar", "category": "Consumer Goods", "year_range": "1935-1968", "n_datapoints": 34, "learning_rate_pct": 20.0, "r_squared": 0.4542, "b_exponent": 0.3222, "b_stderr": 0.0634, "lr_ci_low": 12.5, "lr_ci_high": 26.9, "p_value": 1.7e-05, "cost_label": "Price (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -0.52, "halving_time_yrs": 133.8, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 6, "name": "Laser Diode", "category": "Hardware", "year_range": "1982-1994", "n_datapoints": 13, "learning_rate_pct": 19.0, "r_squared": 0.9297, "b_exponent": 0.3047, "b_stderr": 0.0265, "lr_ci_low": 15.7, "lr_ci_high": 22.3, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (Yen)", "annual_pct_change": -29.26, "halving_time_yrs": 2.0, "latest_price_2025": "<$30/watt (diode bars); $1-$500/unit depending on power", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "$8.58B market (2025); 9.9% CAGR to $13.76B by 2030", "primary_source": "IMARC / LaserDiodeSource", "source_url": "https://www.imarcgroup.com/laser-diode-market", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Exponential decline in $/watt continues. Edge-emitting lasers 42% of revenue. Automotive LiDAR growing 13.4% CAGR.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 151, "name": "Titanium Sponge", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1950-1968", "n_datapoints": 19, "learning_rate_pct": 17.5, "r_squared": 0.8031, "b_exponent": 0.2769, "b_stderr": 0.0343, "lr_ci_low": 13.2, "lr_ci_high": 21.5, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1958 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -11.03, "halving_time_yrs": 5.9, "latest_price_2025": "$2,260/MT (TiO2 reference); titanium sponge ~$10,000-15,000/MT", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~7.4 Mt TiO2 annual production", "primary_source": "ChemAnalyst / USGS", "source_url": "https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/titanium-dioxide-52", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Titanium Sponge. Related to TiO2 production chain.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 129, "name": "NeopreneRubber", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1960-1972", "n_datapoints": 13, "learning_rate_pct": 16.5, "r_squared": 0.822, "b_exponent": 0.2602, "b_stderr": 0.0365, "lr_ci_low": 11.7, "lr_ci_high": 21.0, "p_value": 1.9e-05, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -2.15, "halving_time_yrs": 31.9, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 87, "name": "SCGT", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1956-1978", "n_datapoints": 13, "learning_rate_pct": 16.1, "r_squared": 0.9254, "b_exponent": 0.2526, "b_stderr": 0.0359, "lr_ci_low": 10.1, "lr_ci_high": 21.7, "p_value": 0.002144, "cost_label": "Price (1990 USD/kW)", "annual_pct_change": -5.2, "halving_time_yrs": 13.0, "latest_price_2025": "$48-109/MWh (LCOE for gas combined cycle, Lazard 2025)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~6,800 GW global gas-fired capacity", "primary_source": "Lazard LCOE+ 2025", "source_url": "https://www.lazard.com/media/eijnqja3/lazards-lcoeplus-june-2025.pdf", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "SCGT/Gas turbine. LCOE trending up: $60 (2021) -> $76 (2024). Turbine shortages and rising equipment costs.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 149, "name": "Primary Aluminum", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1929-2025", "n_datapoints": 97, "learning_rate_pct": 16.0, "r_squared": 0.7743, "b_exponent": 0.2522, "b_stderr": 0.014, "lr_ci_low": 14.4, "lr_ci_high": 17.6, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price per Pound (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -1.57, "halving_time_yrs": 43.8, "latest_price_2025": "$2,400-3,270/MT (LME aluminum)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "72.3 Mt (2024); ~1.5 Bt cumulative est.", "primary_source": "TradingEconomics", "source_url": "https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/aluminum", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Primary Aluminum. China's 45 Mt production cap creating structural supply constraints.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 152, "name": "Electric Range", "category": "Consumer Goods", "year_range": "1946-1967", "n_datapoints": 22, "learning_rate_pct": 16.0, "r_squared": 0.6981, "b_exponent": 0.2508, "b_stderr": 0.0378, "lr_ci_low": 11.2, "lr_ci_high": 20.4, "p_value": 2e-06, "cost_label": "Price (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -2.04, "halving_time_yrs": 33.6, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 28, "name": "Wheat (US)", "category": "Agriculture", "year_range": "1866-2024", "n_datapoints": 159, "learning_rate_pct": 15.6, "r_squared": 0.5627, "b_exponent": 0.2442, "b_stderr": 0.0182, "lr_ci_low": 13.4, "lr_ci_high": 17.7, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Cost (acres/1000 bushels)", "annual_pct_change": -1.01, "halving_time_yrs": 68.3, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 184, "name": "Ethanol 2", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1978-1995", "n_datapoints": 18, "learning_rate_pct": 14.8, "r_squared": 0.8475, "b_exponent": 0.2305, "b_stderr": 0.0244, "lr_ci_low": 11.7, "lr_ci_high": 17.8, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (2004 USD/Gallon)", "annual_pct_change": -6.36, "halving_time_yrs": 10.6, "latest_price_2025": "$1.65/gal (US wholesale ethanol, Feb 2026)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "US: 16.22 Bgal (2024 record); Global: ~127 Bliters", "primary_source": "USDA / RFA", "source_url": "https://ethanolrfa.org/markets-and-statistics/annual-ethanol-production", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Ethanol 2 dataset. US production hit record 16.22 billion gallons in 2024.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 114, "name": "CarbonBlack", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1964-1972", "n_datapoints": 9, "learning_rate_pct": 14.7, "r_squared": 0.9016, "b_exponent": 0.2286, "b_stderr": 0.0285, "lr_ci_low": 10.6, "lr_ci_high": 18.6, "p_value": 9e-05, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -1.22, "halving_time_yrs": 56.5, "latest_price_2025": "$2,410/MT (US); $910-1,003/MT (China)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~15 Mt annual (2025 est.)", "primary_source": "ChemAnalyst / IMARC", "source_url": "https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/carbon-black-42", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Historical dataset from BCG study. Major US-China price disparity.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 147, "name": "Polystyrene", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1943-1968", "n_datapoints": 26, "learning_rate_pct": 13.9, "r_squared": 0.6896, "b_exponent": 0.216, "b_stderr": 0.0302, "lr_ci_low": 10.1, "lr_ci_high": 17.6, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price per Pound (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -5.58, "halving_time_yrs": 12.1, "latest_price_2025": "$1,260/MT (US); $1,620/MT (Europe)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~41.09 Mt annual (2025)", "primary_source": "ChemAnalyst / GlobeNewswire", "source_url": "https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/polystyrene-ps-11", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Polystyrene. Historical dataset from BCG chemicals study.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 22, "name": "Offshore Gas Pipeline", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1984-1995", "n_datapoints": 12, "learning_rate_pct": 13.8, "r_squared": 0.2105, "b_exponent": 0.214, "b_stderr": 0.1382, "lr_ci_low": -7.1, "lr_ci_high": 30.6, "p_value": 0.15578, "cost_label": "Price (dollar/mile-inch\u00ef\u00bf\u00bd)", "annual_pct_change": -12.13, "halving_time_yrs": 5.4, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 146, "name": "Polypropylene", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1959-1968", "n_datapoints": 10, "learning_rate_pct": 13.6, "r_squared": 0.9643, "b_exponent": 0.211, "b_stderr": 0.0154, "lr_ci_low": 11.4, "lr_ci_high": 15.8, "p_value": 3e-06, "cost_label": "Price per Pound (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -10.78, "halving_time_yrs": 6.1, "latest_price_2025": "$976/MT (China); $1,160/MT (Europe)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~92.69 Mt annual (2025)", "primary_source": "ChemAnalyst / Statista", "source_url": "https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/polypropylene-10", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Polypropylene. Historical dataset ends ~1972. Mature commodity with 2-5% CAGR.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 95, "name": "Monochrome Television", "category": "Consumer Goods", "year_range": "1947-2010", "n_datapoints": "24", "learning_rate_pct": "-29.5", "r_squared": "0.2477", "b_exponent": "-0.5038", "b_stderr": "0.1916", "lr_ci_low": 10.0, "lr_ci_high": 15.2, "p_value": "0.008551", "cost_label": "Price per Unit (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -5.88, "halving_time_yrs": 11.4, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": 2010, "nPoints": 24 }, { "id": 153, "name": "Beer (Japan)", "category": "Consumer Goods", "year_range": "1951-1968", "n_datapoints": 18, "learning_rate_pct": 12.2, "r_squared": 0.9721, "b_exponent": 0.1884, "b_stderr": 0.0082, "lr_ci_low": 11.2, "lr_ci_high": 13.3, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Retail Price Minus Indirect Tax (USD 1955)", "annual_pct_change": -3.35, "halving_time_yrs": 20.3, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 84, "name": "Ford Model-T", "category": "Automotive", "year_range": "1909-1921", "n_datapoints": 11, "learning_rate_pct": 11.8, "r_squared": 0.9282, "b_exponent": 0.1808, "b_stderr": 0.0205, "lr_ci_low": 8.7, "lr_ci_high": 14.8, "p_value": 0.000119, "cost_label": "Price (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -9.48, "halving_time_yrs": 7.0, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "Ford Model-T. Historical dataset 1909-1923. No modern equivalent.", "dataQuality": "historical", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 302, "name": "BECCS", "category": "Carbon Removal", "year_range": "2017-2025", "n_datapoints": 9, "learning_rate_pct": 11.8, "r_squared": 0.9712, "b_exponent": 0.1815, "b_stderr": 0.0118, "lr_ci_low": 10.1, "lr_ci_high": 13.5, "p_value": 1e-06, "cost_label": "Cost (nominal $/tCO2)", "annual_pct_change": -6.23, "halving_time_yrs": 10.8, "latest_price_2025": "$75-300/tonne CO2 (FOAK); $40-50/t (biorefineries); $95-120/t (power/pulp)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "3 large-scale plants operating (all ethanol); 47 active developers globally", "primary_source": "CDR.fyi / State of CDR", "source_url": "https://www.stateofcdr.org", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "BECCS. Strongest year in 2025. Stockholm Exergi, Drax, Hafslund Celsio are key players. Pipeline could 2x current capacity.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 99, "name": "Ethylene", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1953-1968", "n_datapoints": 16, "learning_rate_pct": 10.6, "r_squared": 0.6495, "b_exponent": 0.1618, "b_stderr": 0.033, "lr_ci_low": 6.1, "lr_ci_high": 14.9, "p_value": 0.000286, "cost_label": "Price (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -3.48, "halving_time_yrs": 19.6, "latest_price_2025": "~$800-1,000/MT (ethylene spot, 2025)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~200+ Mt annual global ethylene (2024)", "primary_source": "ChemAnalyst", "source_url": "https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/polystyrene-ps-11", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Ethylene. One of highest-volume petrochemicals. PCDB dataset ends ~1972.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 150, "name": "Primary Magnesium", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1929-1968", "n_datapoints": 40, "learning_rate_pct": 10.6, "r_squared": 0.8703, "b_exponent": 0.161, "b_stderr": 0.0102, "lr_ci_low": 9.3, "lr_ci_high": 11.8, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Quoted Price per Pound (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": -2.8, "halving_time_yrs": 24.4, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 120, "name": "EthylAlcohol", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1958-1972", "n_datapoints": 15, "learning_rate_pct": 10.5, "r_squared": 0.3216, "b_exponent": 0.1594, "b_stderr": 0.0642, "lr_ci_low": 1.4, "lr_ci_high": 18.7, "p_value": 0.027473, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -1.34, "halving_time_yrs": 51.2, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 29, "name": "Corn (US)", "category": "Agriculture", "year_range": "1975-2024", "n_datapoints": 50, "learning_rate_pct": 10.3, "r_squared": 0.594, "b_exponent": 0.1574, "b_stderr": 0.0234, "lr_ci_low": 7.3, "lr_ci_high": 13.2, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Cost (acres/1000 bushels)", "annual_pct_change": -1.43, "halving_time_yrs": 48.1, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 88, "name": "Solar Thermal", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1984-2007", "n_datapoints": 9, "learning_rate_pct": 10.2, "r_squared": 0.4968, "b_exponent": 0.1553, "b_stderr": 0.0591, "lr_ci_low": 1.1, "lr_ci_high": 18.5, "p_value": 0.033974, "cost_label": "Price (2006 USD/kW)", "annual_pct_change": -1.51, "halving_time_yrs": 45.6, "latest_price_2025": "$3,677/kW (CSP installed cost reference)", "latest_year": 2024, "cumulative_production_2025": "~7 GW cumulative CSP capacity", "primary_source": "IRENA RPGC 2024", "source_url": "https://www.irena.org/Publications/2025/Jun/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2024", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Historical dataset ends 2007. CSP LCOE now $0.092/kWh, down 70% since 2010.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 126, "name": "Magnesium", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1954-1972", "n_datapoints": 19, "learning_rate_pct": 9.5, "r_squared": 0.3022, "b_exponent": 0.1436, "b_stderr": 0.0529, "lr_ci_low": 2.2, "lr_ci_high": 16.2, "p_value": 0.014761, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -0.77, "halving_time_yrs": 90.2, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 305, "name": "Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement", "category": "Carbon Removal", "year_range": "2022-2025", "n_datapoints": 4, "learning_rate_pct": 9.2, "r_squared": 0.8913, "b_exponent": 0.1387, "b_stderr": 0.0343, "lr_ci_low": -0.6, "lr_ci_high": 18.0, "p_value": 0.055937, "cost_label": "Cost (nominal $/tCO2)", "annual_pct_change": -19.9, "halving_time_yrs": 3.1, "latest_price_2025": "$270/tonne CO2 (Planetary/Frontier deal); path to $50/t", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "115,211 t contracted (Planetary, 2026-2030); $43M total offtake", "primary_source": "Frontier Climate / CDR.fyi", "source_url": "https://frontierclimate.com/writing/planetary", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement. Planetary Technologies: $31M Frontier deal. Steepest potential learning curve among CDR pathways.", "dataQuality": "insufficient", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 15, "name": "Wind Turbine (Denmark)", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1981-2000", "n_datapoints": 20, "learning_rate_pct": 7.9, "r_squared": 0.8875, "b_exponent": 0.1187, "b_stderr": 0.0102, "lr_ci_low": 6.5, "lr_ci_high": 9.3, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (DKK/kW)", "annual_pct_change": -3.95, "halving_time_yrs": 17.2, "latest_price_2025": "$1,041/kW (global onshore wind installed cost)", "latest_year": 2024, "cumulative_production_2025": "1,136 GW total wind; 1,053 GW onshore", "primary_source": "IRENA RPGC 2024", "source_url": "https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2025/Jul/IRENA_TEC_RPGC_in_2024_Summary_2025.pdf", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Historical Denmark dataset ends 2000. Global onshore wind LCOE $0.034/kWh in 2024; 55% cost decline since 2010.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 86, "name": "CCGT Electricity", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1981-1996", "n_datapoints": 14, "learning_rate_pct": 5.6, "r_squared": 0.7061, "b_exponent": 0.0824, "b_stderr": 0.016, "lr_ci_low": 3.2, "lr_ci_high": 7.8, "p_value": 0.000323, "cost_label": "Price (1990 US cent/kWh)", "annual_pct_change": -1.25, "halving_time_yrs": 55.2, "latest_price_2025": "$48-109/MWh (gas CC LCOE, Lazard 2025)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~6,800 GW global gas-fired capacity", "primary_source": "Lazard LCOE+ 2025", "source_url": "https://www.lazard.com/media/eijnqja3/lazards-lcoeplus-june-2025.pdf", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "CCGT Electricity. +3% LCOE YoY in 2025. Mature technology, no learning curve dynamics.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 41, "name": "Nuclear Power (OECD)", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1975-1993", "n_datapoints": 19, "learning_rate_pct": 5.5, "r_squared": 0.9136, "b_exponent": 0.0819, "b_stderr": 0.0063, "lr_ci_low": 4.6, "lr_ci_high": 6.4, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1990 USD/Watt)", "annual_pct_change": -0.79, "halving_time_yrs": 87.2, "latest_price_2025": "$7,821/kWe (EIA 2025 estimate); $15,700/kW (Vogtle actual)", "latest_year": 2024, "cumulative_production_2025": "~440 GW global nuclear capacity", "primary_source": "EIA AEO 2025", "source_url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/electricity_generation/pdf/AEO2025_LCOE_report.pdf", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Historical OECD dataset ends 1993. Current costs confirm persistent negative learning curve.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 174, "name": "Wind Electricity", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1980-2024", "n_datapoints": 45, "learning_rate_pct": 5.2, "r_squared": 0.5895, "b_exponent": 0.0773, "b_stderr": 0.0103, "lr_ci_low": 3.8, "lr_ci_high": 6.6, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Cost (2005 US cents/KWH)", "annual_pct_change": -5.44, "halving_time_yrs": 12.4, "latest_price_2025": "$0.034/kWh (onshore LCOE); $0.079/kWh (offshore LCOE)", "latest_year": 2024, "cumulative_production_2025": "1,136 GW total wind cumulative (end 2024)", "primary_source": "IRENA RPGC 2024", "source_url": "https://www.irena.org/Publications/2025/Jun/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2024", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "117 GW new wind capacity added in 2024 (record). Onshore $1,041/kW; offshore $2,852/kW installed cost.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 183, "name": "Wind Power", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1981-2025", "n_datapoints": 39, "learning_rate_pct": 5.0, "r_squared": 0.3842, "b_exponent": 0.0739, "b_stderr": 0.0154, "lr_ci_low": 2.9, "lr_ci_high": 7.0, "p_value": 2.6e-05, "cost_label": "Price (2004 USD/W)", "annual_pct_change": -1.62, "halving_time_yrs": 42.4, "latest_price_2025": "$1,041/kW (onshore); $2,852/kW (offshore)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "1,245 GW total wind (mid-2025)", "primary_source": "GWEC / WWEA", "source_url": "https://www.gwec.net/news/wind-industry-installs-record-capacity-in-2024-despite-policy-instability", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Wind Power dataset through 2025. Capacity factor improved from 27% (2010) to 34% (2024).", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 85, "name": "CCGT Power", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1981-1996", "n_datapoints": 14, "learning_rate_pct": 4.8, "r_squared": 0.1098, "b_exponent": 0.071, "b_stderr": 0.0609, "lr_ci_low": -4.5, "lr_ci_high": 13.3, "p_value": 0.268802, "cost_label": "Price (1990 USD/kW)", "annual_pct_change": -0.51, "halving_time_yrs": 135.2, "latest_price_2025": "$48-109/MWh (gas CC LCOE, Lazard 2025)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~6,800 GW global gas-fired capacity", "primary_source": "Lazard LCOE+ 2025", "source_url": "https://www.lazard.com/media/eijnqja3/lazards-lcoeplus-june-2025.pdf", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "CCGT Power. Same data as CCGT Electricity.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 17, "name": "Onshore Gas Pipeline", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1979-1992", "n_datapoints": 14, "learning_rate_pct": 4.7, "r_squared": 0.1353, "b_exponent": 0.069, "b_stderr": 0.0526, "lr_ci_low": -3.3, "lr_ci_high": 12.0, "p_value": 0.216222, "cost_label": "Price (dollar/mile-inch\u00ef\u00bf\u00bd)", "annual_pct_change": -1.07, "halving_time_yrs": 64.4, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 16, "name": "Wind Turbine 2 (Germany)", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1987-2000", "n_datapoints": 14, "learning_rate_pct": 4.2, "r_squared": 0.6341, "b_exponent": 0.0623, "b_stderr": 0.0143, "lr_ci_low": 2.1, "lr_ci_high": 6.3, "p_value": 0.001124, "cost_label": "Price (DEM/kW)", "annual_pct_change": -3.99, "halving_time_yrs": 17.0, "latest_price_2025": "$1,041/kW (global onshore wind installed cost)", "latest_year": 2024, "cumulative_production_2025": "1,136 GW total wind", "primary_source": "IRENA RPGC 2024", "source_url": "https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2025/Jul/IRENA_TEC_RPGC_in_2024_Summary_2025.pdf", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Historical Germany dataset ends 2000. Current global reference: $1,041/kW installed, $0.034/kWh LCOE.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 304, "name": "Biochar", "category": "Carbon Removal", "year_range": "2020-2025", "n_datapoints": 6, "learning_rate_pct": 4.1, "r_squared": 0.4726, "b_exponent": 0.0609, "b_stderr": 0.0321, "lr_ci_low": -2.0, "lr_ci_high": 9.9, "p_value": 0.131245, "cost_label": "Cost (nominal $/tCO2)", "annual_pct_change": -7.6, "halving_time_yrs": 8.8, "latest_price_2025": "$100-200/tonne CO2; average $164/t", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "3.04 Mt contracted (2022-H1 2025); 658k t delivered; 302k t retired", "primary_source": "CDR.fyi Biochar Market Snapshot 2025", "source_url": "https://www.cdr.fyi/blog/biochar-carbon-removal-market-snapshot-2025", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Biochar. Most mature novel CDR pathway. 435% market growth 2023-2024. $304M market in 2025. Exomad Green 60% of supply.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 308, "name": "Kelp / Seaweed Farming", "category": "Carbon Removal", "year_range": "2020-2025", "n_datapoints": 6, "learning_rate_pct": 4.0, "r_squared": 0.8839, "b_exponent": 0.059, "b_stderr": 0.0107, "lr_ci_low": 2.0, "lr_ci_high": 6.0, "p_value": 0.005267, "cost_label": "Cost (nominal $/tCO2)", "annual_pct_change": -5.33, "halving_time_yrs": 12.7, "latest_price_2025": "$250/tonne CO2 (Running Tide's last price, pre-shutdown)", "latest_year": 2024, "cumulative_production_2025": "Minimal - Running Tide shut down Jun 2024", "primary_source": "Industry reporting", "source_url": "https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/environment-sustainability/carbon-removal-company-running-tide-shuts-down-operations", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Running Tide folded Jun 2024 citing lack of demand. Remaining players (Phykos, Kelp Blue, Arbon Earth) are pre-commercial.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 160, "name": "Solar Thermal Electricity", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1985-1991", "n_datapoints": 7, "learning_rate_pct": 3.4, "r_squared": 0.1228, "b_exponent": 0.0502, "b_stderr": 0.067, "lr_ci_low": -9.9, "lr_ci_high": 15.1, "p_value": 0.49578, "cost_label": "Cost (2004 USD/Watt)", "annual_pct_change": -6.45, "halving_time_yrs": 10.4, "latest_price_2025": "$0.092/kWh (CSP LCOE)", "latest_year": 2024, "cumulative_production_2025": "~7 GW cumulative CSP capacity", "primary_source": "IRENA RPGC 2024", "source_url": "https://www.irena.org/Publications/2025/Jun/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2024", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Solar Thermal Electricity. LCOE dropped 46% YoY in 2024. China CSP LCOE $0.069/kWh.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 303, "name": "Enhanced Weathering", "category": "Carbon Removal", "year_range": "2020-2025", "n_datapoints": 6, "learning_rate_pct": 3.4, "r_squared": 0.1627, "b_exponent": 0.0505, "b_stderr": 0.0573, "lr_ci_low": -7.8, "lr_ci_high": 13.5, "p_value": 0.427803, "cost_label": "Cost (nominal $/tCO2)", "annual_pct_change": -6.69, "halving_time_yrs": 10.0, "latest_price_2025": "$200-500/tonne CO2; suppliers seek $349/t; buyers resist above $271/t", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "Lithos: 5,160 t delivered (largest ERW issuance, Dec 2025); growing rapidly", "primary_source": "CDR.fyi / Frontier Climate", "source_url": "https://frontierclimate.com/writing/lithos", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Enhanced Weathering. Costs fallen 26% since 2022. Lithos target: $100/t by 2030. Frontier deal: $57.1M.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 124, "name": "HydrofluoricAcid", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1962-1972", "n_datapoints": 11, "learning_rate_pct": 1.2, "r_squared": 0.0149, "b_exponent": 0.0167, "b_stderr": 0.0453, "lr_ci_low": -6.1, "lr_ci_high": 7.9, "p_value": 0.720993, "cost_label": "Price (1966 USD/lbs)", "annual_pct_change": -0.15, "halving_time_yrs": 459.9, "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "spliced_reverted", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 7, "name": "Ethanol (Brazil)", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1980-2025", "n_datapoints": 46, "learning_rate_pct": 0.1, "r_squared": 0.0001, "b_exponent": 0.0021, "b_stderr": 0.0416, "lr_ci_low": -6.0, "lr_ci_high": 5.9, "p_value": 0.959789, "cost_label": "Price (USD per GJ)", "annual_pct_change": -2.22, "halving_time_yrs": 30.8, "latest_price_2025": "$1.65/gal equivalent (US); Brazil production ~30 Bliters/yr", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "Global: ~127 Bliters/yr", "primary_source": "EIA / USDA", "source_url": "https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66444", "data_status": "needs_update", "notes": "Brazil ethanol dataset. Brazil remains second-largest producer after the US.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 309, "name": "Carbon Mineralization (CarbFix)", "category": "Carbon Removal", "year_range": "2017-2025", "n_datapoints": 9, "learning_rate_pct": 0.1, "r_squared": 0.6159, "b_exponent": 0.0017, "b_stderr": 0.0005, "lr_ci_low": 0.0, "lr_ci_high": 0.2, "p_value": 0.012245, "cost_label": "Cost (nominal $/tCO2 storage)", "annual_pct_change": -0.12, "halving_time_yrs": 575.3, "latest_price_2025": "$24.80/tonne CO2 (CarbFix injection/storage cost only)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "CarbFix: up to 106,000 t/yr permitted; Coda Terminal: 3 Mt/yr by 2031", "primary_source": "CarbFix / CDR.fyi", "source_url": "https://carboncredits.com/carbfix-secures-first-eu-permit-for-onshore-carbon-capture-storage/", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Carbon Mineralization. EU first onshore storage permit (May 2025). Cost excludes capture. EUR 115M EU Innovation Fund for Coda Terminal.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 300, "name": "DAC Solid Sorbent (Climeworks)", "category": "Carbon Removal", "year_range": "2019-2025", "n_datapoints": 7, "learning_rate_pct": -0.3, "r_squared": 0.0049, "b_exponent": -0.0048, "b_stderr": 0.0309, "lr_ci_low": -6.0, "lr_ci_high": 5.0, "p_value": 0.881517, "cost_label": "Cost (nominal $/tCO2)", "annual_pct_change": -1.19, "halving_time_yrs": 57.8, "latest_price_2025": "$600-1,300/tonne CO2 (Climeworks operational)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "Mammoth: 36,000 t/yr design (105 t actual yr 1); Orca: 4,000 t/yr; ~42.5 Mt total CDR contracted", "primary_source": "CDR.fyi / Climeworks", "source_url": "https://www.cdr.fyi/blog/direct-air-capture-market-snapshot-2025", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Mammoth operational May 2024. Gen 3 tech in development. Target: $250-350/t capture cost by 2030. Early learning curve stage.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 159, "name": "Solar Water Heaters", "category": "Energy", "year_range": "1973-2024", "n_datapoints": "22", "learning_rate_pct": "-5.5", "r_squared": "0.326", "b_exponent": "-0.0814", "b_stderr": "0.0268", "lr_ci_low": -6.6, "lr_ci_high": 0.1, "p_value": "0.002436", "cost_label": "Cost (2004 USD/Watt)", "annual_pct_change": 1.41, "halving_time_yrs": "", "latest_price_2025": "", "latest_year": "", "cumulative_production_2025": "", "primary_source": "", "source_url": "", "data_status": "historical_only", "notes": "", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 301, "name": "DAC Liquid Solvent (Carbon Engineering)", "category": "Carbon Removal", "year_range": "2019-2025", "n_datapoints": 7, "learning_rate_pct": -3.6, "r_squared": 0.0352, "b_exponent": -0.0511, "b_stderr": 0.1196, "lr_ci_low": -28.2, "lr_ci_high": 16.3, "p_value": 0.687026, "cost_label": "Cost (nominal $/tCO2)", "annual_pct_change": -0.19, "halving_time_yrs": 359.9, "latest_price_2025": "$400-600/tonne CO2 (estimated)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "Stratos: 500,000 t/yr design capacity; Class VI permits secured Apr 2025", "primary_source": "1PointFive / CDR.fyi", "source_url": "https://www.1pointfive.com/projects/ector-county-tx", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "DAC Liquid Solvent. Stratos facility: $1.3B investment in Texas. Target: $200-300/t by 2030. On track for 2025 start-up.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 98, "name": "Motor Gasoline", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1946-2025", "n_datapoints": 80, "learning_rate_pct": -15.6, "r_squared": 0.3281, "b_exponent": -0.2087, "b_stderr": 0.034, "lr_ci_low": -21.1, "lr_ci_high": -10.3, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price per Gallon (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": 1.53, "halving_time_yrs": "", "latest_price_2025": "~$2.50-3.50/gal (US retail gasoline, 2025)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~100 Mbbl/day global crude production", "primary_source": "EIA", "source_url": "https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Motor Gasoline. Mature commodity; price driven by crude oil.", "dataQuality": "current_2025", "lastDataYear": null, "nPoints": null }, { "id": 97, "name": "Crude Oil", "category": "Chemicals", "year_range": "1946-2025", "n_datapoints": 80, "learning_rate_pct": -24.2, "r_squared": 0.3923, "b_exponent": -0.3126, "b_stderr": 0.0443, "lr_ci_low": -32.0, "lr_ci_high": -16.8, "p_value": 0.0, "cost_label": "Price (1958 USD)", "annual_pct_change": 1.42, "halving_time_yrs": "", "latest_price_2025": "~$70-80/bbl (WTI crude, 2025 average)", "latest_year": 2025, "cumulative_production_2025": "~100.6 Mbbl/day (2024 record)", "primary_source": "EIA / Trading Economics", "source_url": "https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil", "data_status": "current_2025", "notes": "Crude Oil. 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